Let's be real: Sometimes when Grey's Anatomy teases a "big death," it winds up being a patient (Wilmer Valderrama's character Kyle seems like a very likely candidate). And so the recently revealed "Someone's gonna die!" spoiler about the Grey's season 12 finale might be a little bit overblown. Then again, this is Grey's Anatomy, the show on which literally everyone dies. With that in mind, here's a ranking of 21 characters, ranked by their odds of being the one who gets killed off.
21. Meredith
Meredith Grey isn't going to die. She just isn't. The show is renewed for a 13th season, and she's signed on to be its lead. Theoretically, you could build a series around the other characters, but it would be awkward, it would be ill-watched, and it would likely tank the series. When Shonda Rhimes wants Grey's to end, she'll want it to go out on a high note, and an Ellen Pompeo-less show won't be able to do that.
Odds: 0/10. Come on, she's Meredith Grey. An airplane couldn't kill her.
20. Bailey
Miranda Bailey is indestructible, and I'll fight anyone who says otherwise. Nope. No way. Not happening.
Odds: 0/10
19. Alex
Taking Alex away from Meredith isn't just unfair; it's storytelling suicide. Meredith Grey can't be without a person, and these days (sorry, sisters), Alex is all she's got.
Odds: .02/10
18. Jackson
Look, I'll try to be as diplomatic as possible in explaining this, but: Grey's relies on eye candy, both male and female. Always has, always will. Jesse Williams is a great actor and an incredible activist, and Jackson is a good character, but in addition and equally importantly, he is fine. Why squander such a beautiful natural resource? (I know there's an argument to be made for setting up April as a widow-ish mom, but I've opted to ignore it.)
Odds: 1.7/10
17. Owen
The only way I can see Owen dying is if Riggs kills him, either accidentally or on purpose. I guess Owen could maybe drop dead of a heart attack at the shock of seeing his sister essentially come back from the dead. (Come on, we all know his sister's turning up at some point before this season ends.) Neither seem particularly likely, but neither seem impossible either.
Odds: 2/10, I think, although maybe I've been lulled into complacency by the doggedly tough front Owen puts on all the time.
16. Callie
Sara Ramirez has certainly been stirring the pot here in the past few days: She posted a tweet that hinted at a potential departure from the show, but hashtagged it #Season13, which is the season that will begin in Fall 2016. There are three options here: Sara's being straightforward, and Callie's leaving the show. Sara's having fun messing with the fans. Sara's still negotiating her contract and being able to point to fan uproar over her possible departure is a massive bargaining chip. Either way, it's a bit of a nail-biter.
Odds: 3/10
15. Babyface
When I read the name Dr. Isaac Cross on Wikipedia, my immediate response was, "Who?" Babyface, as I call him, would lift out of the show easily, but he's been such a non-presence that his death probably wouldn't even make enough of a ripple to impact the show's storytelling. He seems more likely to be one of those doctors who just gradually fades into the background (I'm reasonably confident there were entire episodes this season that he wasn't even in) before quietly disappearing altogether.
Odds: 3/10. But his chances of returning next year are probably even lower.
14. Major Thorpe
Meredith's not-boyfriend did promise he'd show up again to see whether or not she's actually ready to start dating, but I don't think it's likely for him to make that appearance in a body bag; it's unclear whether he'll be back this season at all, but if he is, it seems like it'll lead to flirting, not mourning. The not-boyfriend more likely to die? Kyle (see far below).
Odds: 3/10. I know I say this all the time, but seriously, Hasn't Meredith been through enough?
13. Ben
Ben is tricky. Things with him and Bailey are obviously going to come to a head in the next few episodes, and him being out of the residency program temporarily is difficult. But I don't think killing him off is the solution to either of those problems. Plus, when I spoke to him a few weeks ago, he said he didn't think Shonda would finally make him a series regular and then kill him off at the end of that same season. I mean, she probably wouldn't.
Odds: 4/10.
12. Jo
Look, Alex Karev falls in love with girls who die or leave. It's surprising, really, that Jo hasn't done either. Plus, the gun under Jo's bed last week was a very interesting discovery. Maybe the show revealed it to make a point about gun control, or maybe it was foreshadowing. We never actually saw Jo getting rid of it … Then again, it does seem like the show is gearing up to give Alex a happy romantic ending after all these years.
Odds: 4.3/10
11. Amelia
As an addict in recovery myself, I feel conflicted about suggesting that Amelia has a higher probability of death simply because she's a recovering addict. But Amelia's been fairly unstable over the past year. She lost her brother. She nearly lost her sister-in-law. She's relapsed a few times. And Owen hasn't exactly been a stabilizing force in her life, at least not consistently. Addiction is a slippery beast, and when you're using, it's hard to know when to stop or accept that if you don't, you could die. But I'd much rather see Amelia tell a triumphant recovery story over a tragic tale of death.
Odds: 4.6/10
10. April
Women die in childbirth or from pregnancy complications on Grey's all the time. All. The. Time. It's one of the show's most beloved recurring tropes. And Grey's is also fond of killing off characters once their lives are finally in a good place, which is certainly true of April at the moment — good job, healthy baby, amicable relationship with her ex-husband. Finally. She's almost a little … too happy. Is it awful if I point out that Jackson would make a really hot single dad? Yes, fine, I'll show myself out.
Odds: 4.8/10
9. Maggie
Don't hate me, but Maggie's death would qualify as a major tragedy — without a major loss to the show. Kelly McCreary is a lovely actress, but Maggie hasn't made much of a mark other than peacemaker at Meredith's house, exceedingly competent surgeon, and occasional banger of interns. She still doesn't feel like a real and vital part of the goings on at Grey-Sloane; sometimes she talks and I get startled because I forgot she was there. And there's something just sick enough about the idea of Meredith losing another biological sister to make me think it's something the writers would do.
Odds: 5/10.
8. Penny
This one's tricky. On the one hand, Penny's death would be an excellent storytelling device. It would stir up major feelings (and likely major conflict) between Amelia and Meredith. And it would put a stop to the whole "Callie has to move to New York to chase resident tail" nonsense. Plus, we haven't had all that much time to get attached to Penny. But actress Samantha Sloyan has fit in beautifully and seamlessly with the rest of the Grey's cast this season. It seems like a waste for the show to ignore that for the sake of storytelling, right?
Odds: 5.2/10
7. Stephanie
Stephanie's a tricky one — after all, Jerrika Hinton filmed a pilot for a Shonda Rhimes-helmed show, which seems like a good indicator that she might be on her way out. On the other hand, Shonda might want to leave her with a safety net in case the pilot doesn't get picked up. And while Stephanie's been a non-factor for huge portions of this season, Jerrika Hinton teased a "big decision" coming her character's way this spring. Might that decision be … life or death?
Odds: 5.7/10
6. Arizona
Nothing in the storytelling has pointed to Arizona's death this season. But on Grey's, when you all of the sudden start getting a really, really good storyline, it can be a bit of a red flag. I'm going with my gut on this one.
Odds: 6/10
5. Catherine Avery
Getty/ABC
Catherine's aroused my suspicions simply by being around more in the second half of this season, after several episodes away. Maybe there's a logical explanation: maybe she's around because she'll soon be a widow (see below), or maybe she herself might die (Debbie Allen's producer role notwithstanding). Catherine has made several passionate speeches about parenthood recently; it would be a terrible irony if she died before meeting her grandchild. And Shonda's a sucker for terrible irony.
Odds: 6.4/10.
4. Riggs
Getty/ABC
The way I see it, either Riggs and Owen have to make peace, or Riggs has to leave the show. We can't have the two of them fighting in elevators and operating rooms and parking lots for all of season 13 too. I can see Riggs having a potential accidental death or even possibly committing suicide (something the show has never really explored in detail before), but even though I can see Riggs murdering Hunt, I can't see Hunt killing Riggs — unless he was in the throes of a PTSD episode, and we've seen more than one of those this season. Uh oh.
Odds: 6.8/10.
3. Douchebeard
I don't know a single thing about Douchebeard other than the fact that he used to sleep with Maggie, he is training to be a surgeon, and his name is Andrew DeLuca — and I had to look that last one up. He'd lift right out of the show, and Shonda is fond of killing off characters who fit that description, like the Mercy-West doctors in season six's shooting, or Heather Brooks's electrocution in season 11.
Odds: 8/10.
2. "Chief" Webber
Look, there's not a diplomatic way to say this: Webber isn't getting any younger. Plus, his is a death that would rattle Grey-Sloane Memorial to its very core. Shonda hasn't gotten to write one of those in over a year! Way overdue.
Chances of Death: 9/10. Heart-breakingly high.
1. Kyle
He's not a series regular. He's not in good health. And, really, can Shonda get away with writing off another major character so soon after killing off Derek? Actually, don't answer that.
Odds: 9.8/10
Follow Lauren on Twitter.
